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بهترین سایت شرط بندی ایرانی
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Global Statistics

All countries
695,781,740
Confirmed
Updated on September 26, 2023 9:04 pm
All countries
627,110,498
Recovered
Updated on September 26, 2023 9:04 pm
All countries
6,919,573
Deaths
Updated on September 26, 2023 9:04 pm

Global Statistics

All countries
695,781,740
Confirmed
Updated on September 26, 2023 9:04 pm
All countries
627,110,498
Recovered
Updated on September 26, 2023 9:04 pm
All countries
6,919,573
Deaths
Updated on September 26, 2023 9:04 pm

Khaya Sithole | A history of IMF conflicts, co-ordination and concessions | Fin24

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A vehicle that was hit in the accident. A truck driver was killed in a horrific sequence of events following an initial crash in Pinetown. While trying to move the truck after the accident, it appeared to lose control. He died after falling out of the truck which ploughed into several cars and a wall.A truck driver…

42 people in court for R56m police vehicle branding scam

Forty-two people have been implicated in a police car branding scam. Forty-two people have been arrested for their alleged involvement in a police vehicle branding scam. They face a range of charges including corruption, fraud, money laundering, theft and perjury.Of these, 22 are serving police members.Forty-two people are set to appear in the Pretoria Magistrate's Court on…
  • This week, the
    IMF approved a funding request for South Africa under its Rapid Financing
    Instrument (RFI) programme.
  • A number of
    concessions have applied, ranging from the annual quota allowed to the
    terms of engagement.
  • In the RFI programme,
    the IMF indicates no contentious conditions are attached to it, even
    though a road map towards repayment is still expected.

  • This
    week, one of the most contentious convergences between finance, politics and
    human life finally occurred in South Africa.

    After a
    long series of negotiations and arm-twisting, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
    approved a funding request for South Africa under its Rapid Financing
    Instrument (RFI) programme.

    The
    programme exists to enable member countries to apply for finance when facing an
    urgent balance of payment needs.

    In
    response to the coronavirus pandemic, the IMF identified the disruptive nature
    of the outbreak and its concomitant impacts on global economic value chains and
    human mobility, as an event that warranted a drastic response.

    Historically,
    member nations that are able to tap into the RFI programme are able to only
    access funds within a prescribed limit. Once an amount has been allocated to a
    qualifying member nation, its annual “withdrawal” is limited to 50%
    of its approved funding. On a cumulative basis, the quota is limited to 100% of
    the allocated funding.

    In
    response to the coronavirus outbreak, the IMF amended the annual quota from 50%
    to 100%, thereby allowing nations that qualify for assistance to receive it
    immediately rather than in tranches.

    More
    importantly, the cumulative quota limit has been amended from 100 to 150% which
    in theory means a country may receive more than what it is entitled to
    according to the pre-existing formula.

    Such
    concessions seem to have been motivated by the fact little is known about how
    the virus will manifest and spread over the next year and beyond. The
    concessions window is scheduled to run for six months ending in October 2020.

    South
    Africa’s application therefore fell within this concessions window which
    enables the country to access its full facility rather than just 50% of it.

    The
    second concession adopted by the IMF that is relevant to South Africa relates
    to the terms of engagement with member nations that borrow from the IMF itself.

    For
    borrowings outside the RFI programme, the IMF is known for requiring a set of
    commitments that – depending on scale, scope and political persuasion – may be
    regarded as draconian.

    Within
    the RFI programme however, the IMF works on the premise the countries that do participate
    in it are dealing with a short-term emergency and hence it does not come with
    the fully fledged adjustment programmes or reviews associated with general IMF
    funding.

    The third
    concession relates to the cost of the agreement itself.

    The
    stated interest rate of 1.1% is relatively low in comparison to other
    traditional sources of funding. More importantly, for a country with a credit
    rating “enjoyed” by South Africa, the traditional sources of
    financing would be even more expensive.

    The
    curious thing about IMF concessions is that they are as rare as they are
    contentious.

    The IMF’s
    mixed history in intervening during times of crisis has created scepticism and
    anxieties about what happens when politics rather than principles drive
    decision-making. The decision to bail out Greece in 2010 was summarised by the
    Brazilian representative to the IMF as nothing more than a bailout of Greece’s
    private bondholders – made up of big European banks – rather than a bailout of
    Greece itself.

    But it is
    when finance, politics and the preservation of human life intersect where the
    IMF has a lot of questions to answer. Six years ago, as West Africa experienced
    another bout of the Ebola outbreak, the IMF committed to providing $300 million
    to the worst-affected nations – Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone.

    The
    capacity of those countries to manage to outbreak was hampered by their fragile
    healthcare systems that had little capacity to manage and contain the outbreak.
    While the commitment of the IMF was lauded by the G20 and World Bank, a rather
    difficult question of how it had contributed to the crisis loomed large in the
    room.

    It just
    happened to be that all three countries were regular borrowers from the IMF
    which had been part of its various programmes since 1990.

    The main
    point to note – as ever – is that the road to the IMF is paved with many
    variables ranging from natural disasters, wars, famine and poor governance. The
    effect of these variables is that affected countries exhibit poor socioeconomic
    variables ranging from poverty, unemployment, inequality and poor
    infrastructure.

    The
    consequential impact of this is simply that such countries would firstly
    struggle to raise finance through internal resources, and find financial
    markets too expensive.

    The IMF –
    with its lower costs – becomes an option for countries in distress. The main
    problem with negotiating through adversity is the prevalence of adverse
    consequences associated with that.

    In the
    IMF context, countries in distress sign up for a series of commitments and
    concessions that theoretically seek to put them in a stronger footing and
    enable the repayment of loans.

    Regrettably,
    the IMF model seems to have a good ability to quantify the funding question but
    a poor ability to appreciating the social cost and consequence question. The
    nature of adjustments “recommended” by the IMF to borrowing countries
    have the unintended consequence of worsening the fate of nations.

    For a
    country with high unemployment that takes up an IMF loan with the commitment to
    cut the civil service wage bill for example, the obvious effect is an increase
    in unemployment unless the private sector creates enough opportunities to
    absorb the displaced.

    Unfortunately,
    there are strong correlations between countries requesting IMF assistance and
    their inability to drive economic activity in a manner that leads to an easy
    transition of the displaced civil servants into alternative opportunities.

    Similarly,
    when the IMF recommendations lead to a decline in social infrastructure
    investment, the effects are passive but pervasive and intergenerational. This
    was the case of the three countries that experienced the Ebola outbreak in
    2014.

    In its
    comment paper titled The International Monetary Fund and the Ebola Outbreak,
    the Lancet Journal conducted an assessment of the policies advocated by the IMF
    across the countries since 1990.

    The common
    features of IMF conditions – reductions in government spending, cutting the
    civil service wage bill and prioritisation of debt repayments – were prevalent
    across the three nations.

    The
    effect of these IMF adjustments on the healthcare systems of the three nations
    were evidenced by low levels of social spending and human capital constraints
    directly associated with the IMF requests for the cutting of the wage bill.

    In the
    Sierra Leone example, the IMF had – in the late 1990s – required the
    retrenchment of 28% of government employees. That decision on its own, had long-standing
    consequences for critical public services, including health care.

    Additionally,
    another long-standing favourite recommendation of the IMF – decentralised
    healthcare systems – was also adopted in Guinea which resulted in poor co-ordination
    and articulation across the different spheres of the healthcare system with
    fatal consequences when an outbreak like Ebola engulfed the country.

    The
    lessons for the IMF and its member nations since then, has been the need to
    understand the long-run effects of all conditions rather than the singular
    focus on the ability to pay.

    In the
    RFI programme, the IMF indicates no contentious conditions are attached to it,
    even though a road map towards repayment is still expected.

    This
    provides an opportunity for countries like South Africa to commit – at least in
    spirit – to following many of the conditions that are intended to ensure fiscal
    prudence and transparency in the utilisation of funds. Given the low levels of
    trust between the public and the state these days, any conditions relating to
    transparency can only be welcomed.

    Whether
    that transparency paradigm – however it is formulated – can become the baseline
    model for how the state interacts with a society anxious about corruption and
    mismanagement may be the one learning lesson from the IMF conversation that
    South Africans eventually learn to appreciate.

    That of
    course depends on whether they can trust the same people whose dire track
    record in state custodianship has led us here to somehow discover a new dawn in
    public accountability.

    Having
    opened the door to the IMF corridors, it would be tragic if our next trip down
    that road cannot be cloaked under the guise of managing a healthcare crisis,
    but a much broader, intergenerational social crisis.

    Khaya
    Sithole is an accountant, academic and activist who writes and tweets on
    finance, economics and politics. Views expressed are his own. 

    Read More

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