A healthcare worker wears PPEs.
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- The latest weekly mortality report finds an estimated 17 090 excess deaths occurred from natural causes between 6 May and 14 July.
- Not all of these excess deaths are attributed to Covid-19 – but could be related to the outbreak.
- The weekly death reports have been able to confirm there was no increase in deaths before cases of Covid-19 were being found.
The South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) on Wednesday reported an estimated 17 000 more deaths than expected, or “excess deaths”, occurred in the country since May this year.
The SAMRC’s Burden of Disease Research Unit, together with the Centre for Actuarial Research at the University of Cape Town, publishes a weekly mortality report that tracks excess deaths.
The excess is calculated using the number of reported deaths from the National Population Register (NPR), which is maintained by Home Affairs. A forecast is calculated based on the number of deaths reported from natural and unnatural causes in past years.
The SAMRC said on Wednesday that, in the past weeks, the number of excess deaths showed a “relentless increase”.
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“By the second week of July, there were 59% more deaths from natural causes than would have been expected based on historical data. It also means that reported deaths have shown a pattern that is completely different to those indicated by historical trends.”
According to Professor Debbie Bradshaw, a co-author of the report, the timing and geographic pattern leave no room to question whether this is associated with the Covid-19 epidemic.
“However, the weekly death reports have revealed a huge discrepancy between the country’s confirmed Covid-19 deaths and number of excess natural deaths,” said Bradshaw.
Reported
In layman’s terms, the number of excess deaths is obtained through using documented weighting methods to account for multiple variables that could affect the true number of deaths other than what is reported in the NPR data.
Adjustments to the NPR data is needed to gain national deaths as it only contains deaths registered at home affairs for South Africans with ID numbers. Further adjustments are needed to obtain national deaths by age.
The exact methods used are made clear in the report on the SAMRC’s website.
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According to the SAMRC, there are a number of different ways in which excess deaths are calculated.
“Some analysts take the excess above the expected number based on historical data, while others take the number above a threshold such as the upper prediction bound i.e. significantly higher than expected,” the SAMRC said in a statement on Wednesday.
“In general, these excess deaths are calculated using all-cause mortality. It is considered that excess deaths would comprise Covid-19 deaths that are confirmed, Covid-19 deaths that have not been confirmed as well as other deaths that may arise from conditions that might normally have been diagnosed and treated had the public been willing and able to access healthcare,” the SAMRC said.
“The SAMRC has been tracking mortality for decades in South Africa, and this system has identified excess deaths associated with the Covid-19 epidemic.
“These may be attributed to both Covid-19 deaths as well as non-Covid-19 due to other diseases such as TB, HIV and non-communicable diseases, as health services are re-orientated to support this health crisis,” said SAMRC president and CEO Professor Glenda Gray.
This is a developing story.
