Covid-19 news: Lockdowns prevented 3.1 million deaths in Europe

By Conrad Quilty-Harper
and Layal Liverpool

Hollandse Hoogte/ANP/PA Images

Latest coronavirus news as of 5 pm on 8 June

Lockdowns prevented at least 3.1 million covid-19 deaths in Europe

An estimated 3.1 million deaths due to covid-19 were prevented by lockdowns and other coronavirus social distancing measures across 11 countries in Europe including the UK, according to a modelling study published in Nature. 470,000 deaths were averted in the UK alone, the researchers who did the study told the Guardian. 

The team analysed data on reported coronavirus deaths from Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK, up until 4 May. They concluded that for all 11 countries, interventions were effective enough to drive the R number – a measure of how quickly the virus is spreading – to below 1. The researchers also estimate that the lockdown introduced in the UK on 23 March reduced the country’s R number from 3.8 to 0.63 between the end of March and the start of May. Overall, the study estimates that between 12 and 15 million people across all 11 countries had the coronavirus by 4 May, about 3 to 4 per cent of their combined populations.

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In the US, an estimated 60 million coronavirus infections were prevented by stay-at-home orders and other coronavirus restrictions, according to a seperate modelling study. It estimated that 530 million infections were prevented across the US, China, South Korea, Italy, Iran and France, with 285 million estimated to have been prevented in China alone.

Other coronavirus developments

New Zealand has no active coronavirus cases as of today and almost all coronavirus restrictions in the country will be lifted from Tuesday. Contact tracing will continue to be important as new cases may still emerge, New Zealand’s prime minister Jacinda Ardern told journalists today.

400,000 people are expected to return to work in New York City today in construction, manufacturing and retail. About 500 new confirmed coronavirus cases are reported daily in the city, down from a peak of almost 19,000 daily cases in the first two weeks of April. State and city officials say the number is low enough for contact tracers to be able to track every person who has been in contact with people confirmed to have coronavirus.  

People should wear face coverings in public settings including supermarkets, offices, schools, on public transport and at any social or mass gatherings, according to an update of World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines on 5 June. The WHO also recommends that people wear face coverings if they are living in cramped conditions, particularly in refugee camps and slums.

Coronavirus deaths

Matthew Rowett

The worldwide death toll has passed 409,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 7 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Latest on coronavirus from New Scientist

Lack of UK testing data: The UK government will not say when it will resume reporting the number of people outside of hospitals and care homes being tested for covid-19, after more than a fortnight of suspending publication because of double-counting.

Essential information about coronavirus

What is covid-19?

What are the worst symptoms and how deadly is covid-19?

You could be spreading the coronavirus without realising you’ve got it

What does evidence say about schools reopening?

What does the latest research suggest about the coronavirus in pregnancy?

What to read, watch and listen to about coronavirus

Covid-19 Fact Checkers, a podcast from Vice, pairs up young people with experts who can answer their questions relating to the pandemic. A recent episode focused on why people in the UK from black, Asian and minority ethnic backgrounds are being disproportionately affected by covid-19.

Can You Save The World? is a coronavirus social distancing game, where the player travels through a city and gains points for saving lives by practising social distancing correctly and collecting masks. 

What coronavirus looks like in every country on Earth is a 28-minute film from Channel 4 News showing what daily life looks like in every country from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe.

Coronavirus, Explained on Netflix is a short documentary series examining the on-going coronavirus pandemic, the efforts to fight it and ways to manage its mental health toll.

Coronavirus: The science of a pandemic: As the death toll from covid-19 rises, discover how researchers around the world are racing to understand the virus and prevent future outbreaks in our free online panel discussion.

A day in the life of coronavirus Britain is an uplifting Channel 4 documentary shot over 24 hours which shows how the citizens of Britain are coping under lockdown.

New Scientist Weekly features updates and analysis on the latest developments in the covid-19 pandemic. Our podcast sees expert journalists from the magazine discuss the biggest science stories to hit the headlines each week – from technology and space, to health and the environment.

The Rules of Contagion is about the new science of contagion and the surprising ways it shapes our lives and behaviour. The author, Adam Kucharski, is an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK, and in the book he examines how diseases spread and why they stop.

Coronavirus trajectory tracker explained, a video by John Burn-Murdoch for the Financial Times, uses data visualisation to explain the daily graphs that show how coronavirus cases and deaths are growing around the world.

Contagion: The BBC Four Pandemic is a sober documentary about the progression of a hypothetical pandemic which the BBC simulated in 2017. Fronted by science journalist and TV presenter Hannah Fry, and made with the support of some of the country’s best epidemiologists and mathematical modelers, it’s very relevant to today’s covid-19 pandemic.

Previous updates

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5 June

Estimated covid-19 infections have fallen in England

The estimated number of people who have had covid-19 in England has fallen in May, according to provisional results from a random swab testing survey by the Office for National Statistics. In the last two weeks of May, only 1 in 1000, or 0.1 per cent of people in England, were estimated to have had covid-19 – between 26 April and 8 May that number was almost 2.5 times higher. The survey, which didn’t include people in hospitals or care homes and was conducted before additional restrictions were eased in England on 1 June, also found that people who worked outside the home had 3.5 times higher estimated covid-19 rates than those who worked from home. 

Other coronavirus developments

The R number for the UK remains at the same level as last week, between 0.7 and 0.9. According to the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the figure is slightly higher in England – between 0.7 and 1. It is expected that any impact of recent lockdown relaxation will start to be seen on the R, a measure of how quickly the virus is spreading, in the coming week.

A British Heart Foundation survey of people in the UK with heart and circulatory diseases found that half of them say they have found it harder to get medical treatment since the coronavirus pandemic began. 48 per cent of those people cited a lack of available in-person appointments and 41 per cent said they’d had to postpone or cancel a planned test, surgery or procedure. Individuals’ concerns about covid-19’s impact on the health service also played a role – 42 per cent of those surveyed said they didn’t want to put extra pressure on the NHS, and 27 per cent said they were concerned about the risk of getting covid-19 by going to a hospital or clinic. The poll surveyed 11,300 adults between 5 and 13 May, 1484 of whom have or have previously had a heart or circulatory condition.

The Lancet retracted a study that found the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine may be harmful in covid-19 patients, after three of the authors said they “can no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources.” The data originated from US-based health analytics company Surgisphere and came under scrutiny earlier this week.

The British Medical Association (BMA) has called for face coverings to be worn in all areas where social distancing isn’t possible. This follows the government’s announcement yesterday that face coverings will be mandatory on public transport in England from 15 June. THE BMA also suggested that the public should adopt face coverings now, rather than wait until the measures become compulsory. 

Coronavirus numbers

The worldwide death toll has passed 391,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 6.6 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Latest on coronavirus from New Scientist

Social bubbles: Socialising indoors with more than one household in social ‘bubbles’ during the covid-19 crisis looks unlikely to be allowed any time soon in the UK, judging from the government’s scientific advisers and new modelling.

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Latest coronavirus news as of 5 pm on 4 June

People in the UK are sleeping less well under lockdown

60 per cent of people in the UK say they’ve experienced worse sleep since the lockdown was announced on 23 March, according to a survey conducted by researchers at King’s College London and Ipsos MORI. Half of people surveyed said their sleep has been more disturbed than usual and 39 per cent said they have slept fewer hours per night on average. 29 per cent of people said they have slept for longer but feel less rested than usual. People who said they find coronavirus stressful or they are facing financial difficulties due to coronavirus disruptions were more likely to report experiencing worse sleep. Younger people were more likely to report sleep changes than older people, and 38 per cent of people surveyed reported having more vivid dreams than usual. The poll surveyed 2254 people in the UK aged 16 to 75 between 20 and 22 May.

Other coronavirus developments

UK transport minister Grant Shapps announced today that face coverings will become compulsory on public transport in England from 15 June. There will be some exemptions, for example for people with breathing difficulties.

Trials investigating the use of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for covid-19 have been restarted by the World Health Organization (WHO). The trials were suspended based on a study that used data from US-based health analytics company Surgisphere, which is now being questioned.

UK business minister Alok Sharma is self-isolating at home and has been tested for coronavirus after he fell ill in parliament yesterday. Some MPs had previously raised safety concerns about the return to in-person voting in parliament on Tuesday. Today, MPs were granted an emergency debate over the decision to end virtual voting, which will take place on Monday. 

At least 80 million children under the age of one are estimated to be missing out on routine vaccinations because of the coronavirus pandemic, according to data from the WHO and other non-governmental organisations. Many of these children live in South East Asia and Africa. Countries including Nepal, Cambodia and Ethiopia are currently experiencing outbreaks of preventable deadly diseases, including measles, cholera and yellow fever.

Coronavirus numbers

Matthew Rowett

The worldwide death toll has passed 386,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 6.5 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Latest on coronavirus from New Scientist

Coronavirus and carbon dioxide levels: Lockdowns and economic slowdowns during the coronavirus pandemic have had no visible impact on the amount of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere, according to new data which shows levels of the greenhouse gas hit record highs last month. 

Measuring social distancing: As lockdowns lift and restrictions begin to ease around the world, a range of quirky ways of judging a 2 metre social distance are being suggested.

REUTERS/Hannah McKay

3 June

NHS Test and Trace system not tracing enough contacts of coronavirus cases

The NHS Test and Trace system, which is designed to identify people who might have been exposed to people who have tested positive for coronavirus, only reached 38 per cent of known contacts of people diagnosed with coronavirus, according to leaked data obtained by Channel 4 News. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the government’s official advisory group for the pandemic, say the system needs to reach 80 per cent to be effective. Out of 4634 contacts provided to NHS Test and Trace by people who were confirmed to have coronavirus between 28 and 31 May, only 1749 were contacted.

Other coronavirus developments

The World Health Organization and several countries changed their policies on covid-19 treatments on the basis of data from a study in the Lancet which is now being questioned, a Guardian investigation has revealed. The data used in the study were provided by US-based health analytics company Surgisphere, and suggested that the anti-malarials hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine could increase the risk of death in covid-19 patients, which led to the suspension of clinical trials investigating whether these drugs could be used to treat covid-19. But the Lancet has released an “expression of concern” about the validity of the data, a step sometimes made before a study is retracted. There are also concerns about a separate New England Journal of Medicine study that also used data provided by Surgisphere.

UK prime minister Boris Johnson told MPs today that the government’s current alert level for coronavirus, a system designed to inform people about the severity of the pandemic, “does allow” easing of restrictions. This contradicts the government’s own guidance, which under the current alert level of 4, says current restrictions must remain. The Times reported yesterday that Johnson hoped to reduce the virus alert level from 4 to 3 to justify the easing of restrictions this week, but the change was prevented by Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England.

Removing coronavirus restrictions too quickly and having to reintroduce lockdowns will be worse for the global economy than gradually easing restrictions, according to a modelling study published in Nature Human Behaviour today. The study modelled three different scenarios for lifting lockdowns, including one in which restrictions are relaxed gradually over 12 months and two where all restrictions are lifted immediately but then reintroduced within one year. The researchers found that the impact of supply-chain losses on global GDP in the scenario with gradual easing was projected to be about 10 to 20 per cent lower than in the scenarios with recurrent lockdowns.

Black people received a disproportionately high number of fines for lockdown breaches in London according to Metropolitan police figures. Of the 973 fines issued between 27 March and 14 May, black people received 26 per cent despite only making up 12 per cent of London’s population.

Coronavirus deaths

Matthew Rowett

The worldwide death toll has passed 381,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 6.4 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Latest on coronavirus from New Scientist

Why are UK deaths so high?: The UK has the highest number of absolute excess deaths in the week ending 20 March of any country in Europe. Why have there been so many coronavirus deaths in the UK?

Coronavirus vaccine: 124 coronavirus vaccines are currently in development, 10 of which are already being tested in people. But will any of them work?

Essential information about coronavirus

What is covid-19?

What are the worst symptoms and how deadly is covid-19?

You could be spreading the coronavirus without realising you’ve got it

What does evidence say about schools reopening?

What does the latest research suggest about the coronavirus in pregnancy?

Ungureanu Vadim/EyeEm/Getty Images

2 June

Covid-19 death for severe cases is 70 times higher in people over 80

People over 80 in England who are hospitalised with covid-19 are 70 times more likely to die compared to people under 40, according to a report from Public Health England. According to the report, the probability of death is about three times higher for people aged 40 to 49, nine times higher among those aged 50 to 59, 27 times higher for those in their 60s and 50 times higher for those in their 70s. However, these probabilities were calculated from cases where people had severe enough symptoms to get tested for covid-19. The analysis did not take milder cases into account.

The data also shows that black people are between two and three times more likely to be diagnosed with coronavirus than white people, and death rates from covid-19 are highest among people from black and Asian ethnic groups. People of Bangladeshi ethnicity had the highest risk of death of any ethnic group, around twice the risk compared to white people. People of Chinese, Indian, Pakistani, Other Asian, Caribbean and Other Black ethnicity had between a 10 and 50 per cent higher risk than white people. 

The analysis didn’t take people’s occupation or pre-existing health conditions into account, which may go some way to explain the differences in infection and death rate between ethnic groups. However, other studies suggest these factors don’t fully explain the disparity.

Other coronavirus developments

Keeping two metres away from other people is much more effective at limiting the transmission of coronavirus than one metre, with the risk halving for every additional half metre of distance up to three metres, according to a review of 172 studies published in The Lancet. Wearing a face covering and eye protection can also significantly reduce the spread of the virus.

There were 56,308 more deaths in England and Wales between 27 March and 22 May than would normally be expected, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The UK government’s presentation of coronavirus testing numbers is misleading, unclear and difficult to understand, David Norgrove, the head of the UK Statistics Authority, wrote in a letter to health minister Matt Hancock today. Norgrove said the way the government presented the numbers seemed to be designed to show “the largest possible number of tests, even at the expense of understanding.”

UK government press briefings on the coronavirus crisis will no longer take place at weekends, and prime minister Boris Johnson is now set to lead the televised press conferences once a week.

China took more than a week to release the sequenced genome of the coronavirus, according to recordings of World Health Organization meetings in the week of 6 January obtained by the Associated Press. Chinese authorities also delayed the release of diagnostic tests and other data about patients which was needed to evaluate the coronavirus epidemic.

Coronavirus numbers

Matthew Rowett

The worldwide death toll has passed 376,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 6.3 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Latest on coronavirus from New Scientist

UK contact tracing plans criticised: The UK government has been criticised for lifting some coronavirus lockdown restrictions without contact tracing measures fully in place to deal with any resulting covid-19 outbreaks.

Liam McBurney/PA Wire/PA Images

1 June

Restrictions eased in England despite warnings from public health directors

The NHS Test and Trace programme is not robust enough to support the UK government’s easing of coronavirus restrictions and prevent a resurgence of virus cases, according to an article published yesterday by the Association of Directors of Public Health (ADPH), a body that represents public health directors, specialists who oversee public health activities in UK local authorities. The ADPH says restrictions should not be eased because the daily death toll is not consistently falling, particularly in care homes. They also say that easing restrictions too quickly will make it hard to calculate the R number for the disease, a measure of how fast coronavirus infections are spreading.

The easing of restrictions in England from today includes people being allowed to meet outdoors in groups of up to six, while maintaining a two metre distance between people from different households, as well as the reopening of car showrooms and outdoor markets.

Pupils in reception, Year 1 and Year 6 in England were allowed to return to school today, but 46 per cent of parents and carers may have kept their children at home, a survey of primary school leaders by the National Foundation for Educational Research suggests.

Other coronavirus developments

The total number of confirmed coronavirus cases around the world has passed 6.2 million, and more than 373,000 people are confirmed to have died from the disease.

The UK government has not released data about how many people are tested for coronavirus since 22 May. The official numbers, which say there were 115,275 tests performed on 30 May with a capacity for 205,634 tests, also “double count” by including nasal swabs and saliva tests on the same person.

Only 197 cases of influenza virus were confirmed in Australia this May, compared to 30,567 in the same month last year, according to Australia’s Department of Health. This huge decrease in flu cases may be due to social distancing measures introduced to limit the spread of coronavirus. Australia’s flu season usually peaks during its winter months, from June to August.

There is only one person with active covid-19 in New Zealand, according to the latest figures from New Zealand’s health ministry.

Coronavirus numbers

Matthew Rowett

Latest on coronavirus from New Scientist

UK contact tracing plans criticised: The UK government has been criticised for lifting some coronavirus lockdown restrictions without contact tracing measures fully in place to deal with any resulting covid-19 outbreaks.

DGLimages/Getty Images

29 May

14 per cent of people in the UK said they have had friends or family visit them at home, according to a survey conducted between 20 and 22 May by researchers at King’s College London and Ipsos MORI. Only 5 per cent of people reported having broken lockdown restrictions in this way in a similar survey done between 1 and 3 April.

The poll surveyed 2254 people in the UK aged 16 to 75. Of these, 92 per cent of people said they are maintaining a two metre distance from other people in public spaces in accordance with government guidelines and 38 per cent are wearing a face mask or covering outside. 

The survey found that 40 per cent of people think they will catch the coronavirus by the end of the year. 35 per cent of people said they had delayed seeking medical advice or treatment for non-coronavirus conditions and 17 per cent said they’d had to delay or cancel treatment due to disruptions caused by the pandemic. Almost half of those surveyed – 48 per cent – reported feeling more anxious and depressed than usual.

Other coronavirus developments

The UK government’s coronavirus alert level remains at 4, which corresponds to high or rising virus transmission, a Downing Street spokesperson told journalists today. Further easing of restrictions in England is set to begin on Monday, despite the government’s own guidelines suggesting that an alert level of 4 warrants continuation of “current social distancing measures and restrictions.” There were 1887 positive tests for coronavirus in the UK on 27 May.

More than 200 schools which had reopened in South Korea on Wednesday were forced to close again today due to a new outbreak of coronavirus. The country reported 79 new cases on Thursday, the highest number in two months.

Brazil reported a new daily record of 26,417 confirmed new coronavirus cases on Thursday, according to the country’s health ministry. There have been more than 438,000 coronavirus cases confirmed in Brazil so far, the second-highest number of any country, after the US.

The covid-19 death toll for Moscow, Russia, has been revised from 639 to 1561. The revised figure includes 169 cases where tests had initially been negative but where post-mortem examinations confirmed coronavirus as the cause of death. It also includes more than 700 people who died of other causes that were made worse by a confirmed coronavirus infection.

Coronavirus numbers

The worldwide death toll has passed 361,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 5.8 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Latest on coronavirus from New Scientist

Coronavirus in the brain: From loss of smell to stroke, people with covid-19 are reporting strange neurological issues that challenge our understanding of the disease – and how to treat it.

How to lower your coronavirus risk: The coronavirus is still circulating yet many countries are taking steps to relax restrictions. If you have been asked to return to work or send your children back to school, how can you minimise the risk of infection to yourself and your family?

Pippa Fowles / No 10 Downing Street

28 May

England’s test and trace system won’t be fully operational until end of June

England’s test and trace system, which is designed to identify people who might have been exposed to people who have tested positive for coronavirus, won’t be fully operational until the end of June, Dido Harding, who is leading the NHS Test and Trace scheme, told MPs today. UK prime minister Boris Johnson said last week that the system would be in place and able to track 10,000 people a day using text, phone and email by 1 June. Harding also described the NHS covid-19 contact tracing app, which was meant to launch on 15 May but was delayed until 1 June, as “the cherry on the cake rather than the cake itself.”

In England, people will be allowed to meet in public places and private gardens in groups of up to six starting on Monday, and in Scotland, groups of up to eight people from two different households will be allowed to meet outdoors from tomorrow. Northern Ireland allowed groups of up to six people to meet outside from 18 May. People from different households will still be required to keep a distance of two metres.

Other coronavirus developments

There have been more than 100,000 deaths from covid-19 in the US since the outbreak began, according to Johns Hopkins University, the largest number of any country. The number of daily new confirmed cases has been rising over the last week in 18 states, including California, Florida and Louisiana. In New York, the country’s worst-hit state with more than 369,000 cases in total, the number of daily new cases has fallen to around 1,200, down from a peak in early April of over 10,000 a day.

An analysis by the Financial Times suggests the UK had the second highest rate of coronavirus deaths among 19 countries with comparable data. The UK registered 59,537 more deaths than would normally be expected to occur since the week ending 20 March, a death rate of 891 per million people, higher than Italy and the US, and second only to Spain. The FT analysis also found a link between countries that locked down earlier in their outbreaks and lower death tolls.

Boris Johnson’s senior aide Dominic Cummings might have breached the UK’s coronavirus restrictions when he drove to Barnard Castle in April, but the incident does not warrant further action, Durham police said in a statement today.

An estimated 133,000 people in England outside hospitals and care homes had covid-19 between 11 and 24 May, according to results from a random swab testing survey in England by the Office for National Statistics. The figure is down slightly from 148,000 between 27 April and 10 May.

UK health minister Matt Hancock responded today to a letter from the UK Statistics Authority to clarify that the government’s target of 200,000 coronavirus tests per day by Sunday doesn’t refer to the number of tests actually performed. Instead it refers to the testing capacity.

The number of passengers arriving in the UK by plane in April was 99 per cent lower than it was in the same month last year, according to a Home Office report published today. 112,300 passengers arrived in the UK by air in April this year, down from about 3.8 million in March and 7.1 million in January. 

Coronavirus numbers

Matthew Rowett

The worldwide death toll has passed 356,000. The number of confirmed cases is more than 5.7 million, according to the map and dashboard from Johns Hopkins University, though the true number of cases will be much higher.

Click here to see previous daily updates