By Eric Ting, SFGATE and Matthew Tom
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An employee holds up an antibody test cartridge of the ichroma COVID-19 Ab testing set utilized in diagnosing the coronavirus for a picture on an assembly line of the Boditech Medication Inc. in Chuncheon, South Korea, Friday, April 17,2020 Boditech Medication recently started exporting its antibody-based virus test packages to different countries. less
A staff member holds up an antibody test cartridge of the ichroma COVID-19 Ab screening package utilized in identifying the coronavirus for a photograph on an assembly line of the Boditech Medication Inc. in Chuncheon, South … more
Picture: Lee Jin-man, AP.
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A staff member holds up an antibody test cartridge of the ichroma COVID-19 Ab screening kit utilized in diagnosing the coronavirus for a photo on a production line of the Boditech Medication Inc. in Chuncheon, South Korea, Friday, April 17,2020 Boditech Medication recently started exporting its antibody-based virus test packages to various nations. less
An employee holds up an antibody test cartridge of the ichroma COVID-19 Ab testing set used in detecting the coronavirus for a photo on a production line of the Boditech Med Inc. in Chuncheon, South … more
Image: Lee Jin-man, AP.
The better half of a Stanford professor solicited moms and dads by means of e-mail in Los Altos to join her husband’s coronavirus antibody study, wrongly claiming that the tests were “FDA authorized” and would inform participants whether they were immune, possibly consisting of the research study’s findings, according to BuzzFeed News.
The e-mail was sent April 2 to moms and dads with children going to Ardis G. Egan Junior High with the subject line, “COVID-19 antibody testing – FREE.” It went on to say, acquire “assurance” and “understand if you are immune.” The email was sent by Catherine Su, a radiation oncologist wed to Jay Bhattacharya, who was co-leading the Stanford research study with Dr. Eran Bendavid.
The e-mail gotten by BuzzFeed News went on to say: “If you have antibodies against the infection, you are FREE from the danger of a) getting sick or b) spreading the virus. In China and U.K. they are asking for evidence of resistance before going back to work. If you understand any small business owners or staff members that have been laid off, let them know– they no longer need to quarantine and can return to work without worry.”
” The e-mail you reference was sent without my consent or my knowledge or the authorization of the research study team,” Bhattacharya wrote in an email responding to BuzzFeed News.
In early April, Stanford scientists carried out an antibody test of 3,300 citizens, with individuals picked based on their age, race, gender and ZIP code to create a sample that was representative of the county’s population.
The results of the research study were released April 17, and a number of outside researchers have had time to evaluate the preliminary study and its methodology.
News of the email would even more take into concern the research study’s findings. While Bhattacharya acknowledged that the makeup of the research study’s individuals was shaken off by the e-mail, he stated the research team corrected the concern.
” Our tracking of signups extremely highly suggests that this e-mail attracted many individuals from the wealthier and much healthier parts of Santa Clara County to seek to volunteer for the research study,” he informed BuzzFeed News. “We took instant steps to slow the recruitment from these locations and open recruitment from all around Santa Clara County.”
Not long after the research study was released, a variety of specialists and scientists questioned the study’s approach.
Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UCSF, highlighted the reality that the antibody test the researchers used was not FDA-approved, as extremely couple of antibody tests have gotten approval to this point.
” At end of day, the percent positive for antibodies was 1.5 percent,” he stated. “I do not know what to make of the initial sample, I don’t understand what to make of their changes for laboratory tests or the basic population weight. I leave thinking they discovered 1.5 percent of individuals have antibodies. They’re clever as whips however felt crushed to get this out quickly, which is easy to understand.”
Rutherford included that a 1.5 percent antibody occurrence is in line with what he would have anticipated.
” In the medical neighborhood, the thought is that 1 percent of individuals have been exposed in the Bay Location, and it’s a little greater in Santa Clara County,” he said.
Rutherford was not alone in questioning the validity of the weights the researchers used. Dr. Natalie E. Dean, a teacher of biostatistics at the University of Florida, tweeted that she had concerns with the adjustments produced clustering (some participants brought children and other household members with them to the test) and test qualities (scientists assume no false positives but some false negatives).
” Having actually had experience with these types of weighted surveys, I am constantly a little hesitant when the weighted outcome is extremely various from the unweighted outcome,” she wrote in a Twitter thread. “Here, nearly double. This can be due to a few highly prominent observations. Weights can be wonky.”
When utilizing the unweighted antibody prevalence of 1.5 percent, that equates to an overall of 28,920 citizens in the county that have been contaminated. Considering that the county had reported just under 1,000 cases at the time the research study was conducted, the unweighted antibody number suggests infections are underreported by an aspect of 30, and not the element of 50 to 85 the weighted figures suggest.
Underreporting by an element of 30 is still significant, as it as soon as again significantly lowers the mortality rate. When using the scientists’ estimates for deaths through April 22 (100) and the unweighted antibody figures, the real mortality rate in Santa Clara County becomes 0.35%– a figure practically similar to the “real” mortality rate calculated following antibody tests in a hard-hit German town. A 0.35%mortality rate is still nothing to sniff at, nevertheless, as it is three to 4 times deadlier than the seasonal flu (with a death rate of 0.1%) and can be substantially greater for senior homeowners and people with underlying conditions.
Nevertheless, many concern if the 1.5 percent prevalence of antibodies was the result of a tasting bias that led to an out of proportion number of individuals with COVID-19 symptoms participating in the study.
In a peer evaluation of the antibody research study published to Medium, former Stanford lecturer Balaji Srinivasan, who concentrates on data and computational biology, argued the selection techniques might have overemphasized the prevalence of the illness in the county.
“What if their individuals had a much higher rate of COVID-19 than regular? As a reductio advertisement absurdum, if you went to a hospital and checked all recovering clients for COVID-19 antibodies, you ‘d most likely get a really high portion of positives.
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Matthew Tom is a Homepage Editor at SFGATE. Email: [email protected].