Take the New York metropolitan area’s progress against the coronavirus out of the equation and the numbers show the rest of the U.S. is moving in the wrong direction, with the known infection rate rising even as states move to lift their lockdowns, an Associated Press analysis found Tuesday.
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Anderson High School senior Teyaja Jones, right, poses in her cap and gown and a bandana face cover, Tuesday, May 5, 2020, in Austin, Texas. Texas’ stay-at-home orders due to the COVID-19 pandemic have expired and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has eased restrictions on many businesses that have now opened, but school buildings remain closed. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
New confirmed infections per day in the U.S. exceed 20,000, and deaths per day are well over 1,000, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University. And public health officials warn that the failure to flatten the curve and drive down the infection rate in places could lead to many more deaths — perhaps tens of thousands — as people are allowed to venture out and businesses reopen.
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“Make no mistakes: This virus is still circulating in our community, perhaps even more now than in previous weeks” said Linda Ochs, director of the Health Department in Shawnee County, Kansas.
Elsewhere around the world, Britain’s official coronavirus death toll, at more than 29,000, topped that of Italy to become the highest in Europe and second-highest in the world behind the United States. The official number of dead worldwide surpassed a quarter-million, by Johns Hopkins’ count, though the true toll is believed to be much higher.
The densely packed New York metropolitan area, consisting of about 20 million people across a region that encompasses the city’s northern suburbs, Long Island and northern New Jersey, has been the hardest-hit corner of the country, accounting for at least one-third of the nation’s 70,000 deaths.
When the still locked-down area is included, new infections in the U.S. appear to be declining, according to the AP analysis. It found that the five-day rolling average for new cases has decreased from 9.3 per 100,000 people three weeks ago on April 13 to 8.6 on Monday.
But subtracting the New York area from the analysis changes the story. Without it, the rate of new cases in the U.S. increased over the same period from 6.2 per 100,000 people to 7.5.
President Donald Trump looks at an assembly line machine manufacturing protective masks being shown to him by Honeywell’s Vice President of Integrated Supply Chain Tony Stallings during a tour of Honeywell’s facility manufacturing masks for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Phoenix, Arizona on May 5, .
Patient Armando Mendoza, who spent 45 days at St. Joseph’s Hospital battling COVID-19, is released to applause and celebration from hospital workers who helped save his life during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Orange, California on May 5.
Tara Van Wieren works on a Mother’s Day flower arraignment at Relles Florist in Sacramento, Calif., on May 5.
Counselor to the President Hope Hicks follows White House senior adviser Jared Kushner after they arrived with President Donald Trump at Sky International Airport prior to touring a Honeywell mask production facility manufacturing protective masks for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Phoenix, Arizona on May 5.
People keep a social distance as they wait in line for free walk-in coronavirus testing at the Bread for the City social services charity during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Washington, D.C. on May 5. The charity is able to test about 100 people each week.
A funeral home worker (L) waits outside before taking a casket to the cemetery for burial amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Quincy, Massachusetts on May 5.
A woman wears a mask as she leaves a store during the coronavirus pandemic in Deerfield, Ill. on May 5. New Illinois rules about wearing a face mask over age 2 start Friday, May 1, when they can’t maintain a 6-foot social distance in public.
A U.S. Army National Guard soldier walks outside a temporary morgue, during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the Brooklyn borough of New York City, New York on May 5.
A mural on a Northwell Healthcare building features first responders and healthcare workers who are on the frontlines during the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5 in New Hyde Park, New York.
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds holds a news conference on COVID-19 at the State Emergency Operations Center in Johnston, Iowa, on May 5.
Surfers hit the water at Thalia Street Beach in Laguna Beach, California after officials reopened access on May 5.
President Donald Trump talks to reporters before boarding Air Force One for a trip to Phoenix to visit a Honeywell plant that manufactures protective equipment on May 5 in Andrews Air Force Base, Maryland.
Richmond City Health District workers check in residents for COVID-19 testing at a site set up by the Virginia National Guard on May 5 in Richmond, Virginia.
Angela Beauchamp fills out an absentee ballot at City Hall in Garden City, Michigan on May 5. People in about 50 Michigan communities are participating in largely mail-based local elections that might be a blueprint for the presidential battleground state in November.
Anderson High School senior Teyaja Jones, poses in her cap and gown and a bandana face cover on May 5 in Austin, Texas.
A grocery worker, wearing a protective mask and gloves, helps checking out a customer from behind a plexiglass barrier at the 99 Ranch Market in Los Angeles on May 5.
American flags adorn the St. Patrick School on May 5, 2020 in Bay Shore, New York.
A man walks along a street closed to vehicle traffic as the city expands areas for pedestrians to walk and to keep a recommended safe distance on May 4 in New York City, New York.
Protestors wave signs and American flags at a Reopen Massachusetts Rally outside of the Massachusetts State House on May 4 in Boston, Massachusetts.
Dr. Sabrina Solt prepares an appointment-only coronavirus drive-thru swab test in the parking lot at Impact Church, on May 4 in Scottsdale, Ariz. The 2-day testing site for both the coronavirus and the antibody test was made possible by a partnership with Arizona Cardinals’ NFL football player Jordan Hicks and Impact Church, hoping to test 500 people.
(L-R) Sarah Bloom Raskin and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) listen as a group of Maryland residents, calling themselves the ‘Pandemic Comforters,’ sing in the front yard of his home on May 4 in Takoma Park, Maryland.
A sign reminds shoppers of social distancing guidelines at the reopening of Schnee’s Boots, Shoes and Outdoors on Main Street on May 4 in Bozeman, Montana.
Mercedes Mejia, left, and Coralia Hernandez pose for a selfie in front of the still-closed courtyard of the TCL Chinese Theatre, Monday, May 4, 2020, on Hollywood Blvd. in Los Angeles. Shutdown orders continue in California due to the coronavirus pandemic. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)
Alexis Lamoreaux goes to her hospital shift after graduating from the nursing school of the Ohio State University during an online commencement ceremony amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Columbus, Ohio, U.S., May 4, 2020. REUTERS/Megan Jelinger
Crowds gather at Buffalo Bayou Park as social distancing guidelines to curb the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are relaxed in Houston, Texas, U.S. May 4, 2020. REUTERS/Callaghan O’Hare
Arizona Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, center, speaks at a news conference regarding the latest updates on the coronavirus as Cara Christ, left, Arizona director of Public Health Services, and Maj. Gen. Michael McGuire, right, Arizona Army National Guard, listen on May 4 in Phoenix, Arizona.
Workers change signage to reflect positive messages on the marquee at the Quarry Cinema, which is set to reopen in June, in San Antonio, Texas on May 4.
Eric Egelund cleans at Lotus Nail Spa on May 4 in Stansbury Park, Utah. Nail salons, gyms and restaurants are among some Utah businesses that were allowed to open their doors under new guidelines.
Beachgoers sunbathe near a beach rules sign after Clearwater Beach officially reopened to the public on May 4 in Clearwater, Florida.
Senator Tim Kaine volunteers at the Arlington Food Assistance Center in Arlington, Virginia, on May 4.
Seattle Police officers and other workers look on as a homeless man wheels away a cart of his belongings from a homeless encampment being cleared on May 4 in Seattle.
New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio and FDNY Commissioner Daniel A. Nigro speak with firefighters following the handout of donated meals on International Firefighters Day on May 4 in New York City.
Thousands of white markers, are seen on the lawn, placed by Senior Pastor the Rev. Patrick Collins, at the First Congregational Church of Greenwich on May 4 in Greenwich, Connecticut to honor the many lives lost as result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Ken Gilenwater hits on the driving range at the Orchard Golf Center on May 4 in Greenwood, Indiana as the state started relaxing coronavirus restrictions, with the goal of allowing nearly all activities to resume on July 4.
People visit Clearwater Beach after Governor Ron DeSantis opened the beaches on May 4 in Clearwater, Florida. Restaurants, retailers, beaches and some state parks reopened with caveats, as the state continues to ease restrictions put in place to contain COVID-19.
A view of an empty Times Square during the COVID-19 pandemic on May 3 in New York City.
Ambulnz paramedics and Aurora firefighters salute as the casket carrying the body of paramedic Paul Cary is removed from a plane at Denver International Airport on May 3 in Denver, Colorado. Cary died from coronavirus after volunteering to help combat the pandemic in New York City.
People queue to get free masks distributed by Urban Park Rangers at Grand Army Plaza, during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the Brooklyn borough of New York City, New York on May 3.
President Donald Trump participates in a live Fox News Channel virtual town hall called “America Together: Returning to Work” with hosts Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum about the response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic being broadcast from inside the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C. on May 3.
A sign thanking healthcare workers is hung from a balcony at a downtown apartment building on May 3 in Kansas City, Missouri. The city is under extended stay-at-home orders until May 15 in an effort to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
New Jersey residents enjoy a sunny day at Branch Brook Park in Newark on May 3, after the all-state parks were reopened for the first time since April 7th.
Health workers rest near the NYU Langone Hospital, during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York on May 3.
A lone beachgoer takes a sunbath on May 3 in Newport Beach, Calif.
Masked customers walk through the West Seattle Farmers Market during its first opening in nearly two months, on May 3, in Seattle. Farmers markets in Seattle were initially closed, but are reopening with guidelines that include fewer vendors allowed, a limited number of customers with a single direction of movement, additional hand washing and sanitizing stations and signs and markings urging customers to maintain distance from each other.
People walk near the Samaritan’s Purse Emergency Field Hospital in Central Park, in Manhattan, New York, on May 3.
Employees prepare takeout orders at DJ’s Deck restaurant, on May 3, in Port Orange, Florida. Florida can reopen restaurants with proper spacing outdoors and with 25% capacity indoors.
Lisa Fascilla, with children Nina and Alex receive a beer delivery from Karen and Mark Heuwetter and their two dogs Buddy and Barley on May 03, in Huntington Village, New York. Mark and Karen Heuwetter own the Six Harbors Brewery and have trained their two Golden Retrievers, Buddy, and Barley, to help them deliver beer to their customers. The dogs are fitted with a four-pack of empty beer cans around their necks and meet customers at their doorstep while Mark and Karen carry the beer to deliver behind them. It has been comforting for the dogs who are enjoying the exercise and meeting people along the way. The customers love seeing Buddy and Barley and enjoy petting and greeting them to go with their beer delivery.
Urban Park Rangers distribute free masks to people at Grand Army Plaza, in Brooklyn, New York, on May 3.
People practice social distancing while enjoying the weather at Central Park’s Sheep Meadow, on May 2, in New York. New York City police dispatched 1,000 officers this weekend to enforce social distancing as warmer weather tempted New Yorkers to come out of quarantine.
A CORE (Community Organized Relief Effort) volunteer checking appointments and directing cars lining up for coronavirus testing in the Woodland Hills section of Los Angeles, California, on May 2.
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While the daily number of new deaths in the New York area has declined markedly in recent weeks, it has essentially plateaued in the rest of the U.S. Without greater New York, the rolling five-day average for new deaths per 500,000 people dropped slightly from 1.86 on April 20th to 1.82 on Monday.
U.S. testing for the virus has been expanded, and that has probably contributed to the increasing rate of confirmed infections. But it doesn’t explain the entire increase, said Dr. Zuo-Feng Zhang, a public health researcher at the University of California at Los Angeles.
“This increase is not because of testing. It’s a real increase,” he said.
Pockets of America far from New York City are seeing ominous trends.
Deaths in Iowa surged to a new daily high of 19 on Tuesday, and 730 workers at a single Tyson Foods pork plant tested positive. On Monday, Shawnee County, home to Topeka, Kansas, reported a doubling of cases from last week on the same day that business restrictions began to ease.
Gallup, New Mexico, is under a strict lockdown until Thursday because of an outbreak, with guarded roadblocks to prevent travel in and out and a ban on more than two people in a vehicle. Authorities have deployed water tankers, hospital space is running short, and a high school gym is now a recuperation center with 60 oxygen-supplied beds.
On Monday, a model from the University of Washington nearly doubled its projection of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. to around 134,000 through early August, with a range of 95,000 to nearly 243,000.
Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the institute that created the projections, said the increase is largely because most states are expected to ease restrictions by next week.
Without stay-at-home orders and similar measures, Murray said, “we would have had exponential growth, much larger epidemics and deaths in staggering numbers.” But cooperation is waning, with cellphone location data showing people are getting out more, even before their states reopen, he said.
President Donald Trump, asked about the projections before traveling to Arizona to visit a mask factory, disputed the accuracy of models in general and said keeping the economy closed carries deadly costs of its own, such as drug abuse and suicide.
“We have to get our country open,” Trump said.
A senior U.S. government scientist alleged in a whistleblower complaint Tuesday that the administration failed to prepare for the onslaught of the coronavirus. Dr. Rick Bright also said he was reassigned to a lesser role because he resisted political pressure to allow widespread use of hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug unproven for treating COVID-19, that was being pushed by Trump.
Volunteers at the Mediamatic restaurant seated in small glasshouses toast during a try-out of a setup which respects social distancing abiding by government directives to combat the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus in Amsterdam, Netherlands, Tuesday, May 5, 2020. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)
Musicians from Mariachi groups perform during an event to appeal that authorities allow them to work this upcoming Mother’s Day in Quito, Ecuador, Tuesday, May 5, 2020. Mariachis have not been able to perform and earn a living since the government ordered in mid-March a national lockdown that includes restrictions on traffic and pedestrian movement to curb the spread of the new coronavirus. (AP Photo / Dolores Ochoa)
A grocery worker, wearing a protective mask and gloves, helps checking out a customer from behind a plexiglass barrier at the 99 Ranch Market in the Van Nuys section of Los Angeles on Tuesday May, 5, 2020. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)
Pedestrians walk along side closed shops during the coronavirus lockdown in London, Tuesday, May 5, 2020. Whilst a few European countries relax the COVID-19 lockdown, Britain still remains under lockdown without an exit strategy yet.(AP Photo/Frank Augstein)
Shoppers, wearing protective face masks as a precaution against the spread of the new coronavirus, fill a local market in Asuncion, Paraguay, Tuesday, May 5, 2020. The government authorized the reopening of some businesses under a plan coined, “intelligent quarantine”. (AP Photo/Jorge Saenz)
A couple wearing face masks and gloves to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, sit on a bench in front of the sea in Barcelona, Spain, Tuesday, May 5, 2020. Spain has this week started to roll back from a lockdown in place since mid-March, one of the world’s strictest. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)
Store manager Natalie Hijazi temporarily closes off the entrance to a Pet Fair store inside The Woodlands Mall to help meet the current occupancy limits in place Tuesday, May 5, 2020, in The Woodlands, Texas. The mall reopened Tuesday with increased health and safety measures in place.Texas’ stay-at-home orders due to the COVID-19 pandemic have expired and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has eased restrictions on many businesses that have now opened. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
A woman walks in the “Villa 31” neighborhood during a government-ordered lockdown to curb the spread of the new coronavirus in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Tuesday, May 5, 2020. According to official data, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 disease in this city’s slum have increased in the past week, putting authorities on high alert. (AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko)
People wear masks out of concern for the coronavirus while standing in line outside a Salvation Army food pantry, Tuesday, May 5, 2020, in Chelsea, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
An employee calls for a client to enter a fast food restaurant, during a government lockdown restricting residents to essential shopping in the mornings in an attempt to contain the spread of the new coronavirus, in La Paz, Bolivia, Tuesday, May 5, 2020. (AP Photo/Juan Karita)
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The Department of Health and Human Services said in a statement that he was transferred to the National Institutes of Health to work on coronavirus testing, a crucial assignment.
Zhang, the UCLA researcher, said it’s worrying that the rate of new cases is increasing at the same time some states are easing up: “We’re one country. If we’re not moving in the same step, we’re going to have a problem.”
He said he is particularly concerned about Florida and Texas, where cases have been rising steadily and the potential for explosions seems high.
While death rates in some places have been trending down, that could change and hospitals could become overwhelmed, he said.
Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, said she and colleagues keep warning governors against “skipping phases” in federal guidelines recommending that business and other institutions, like schools, be reopened in phases.
“We don’t want to see serious illness and mortality increase,” Birx said.
In Europe, meanwhile, Britain said about 29,400 people with COVID-19 have died in its hospitals, nursing homes and other settings, while Italy reported just over 29,300 confirmed fatalities.
Both counts are probably underestimates because they do not include suspected cases. Britain reported more than 32,000 deaths in which COVID-19 was either confirmed or suspected; a comparable figure for Italy was not available.
Even so, the rate of deaths and hospitalizations in Britain was on the decline, and the government prepared to begin loosening its lockdown.
A trial began of a mobile phone app that U.K. authorities hope will help contain the outbreak by warning people if they have been near an infected individual; it could be rolled out later this month.
Many European countries that have relaxed strict lockdowns after new infections tapered off were watching their virus numbers warily.
“We know with great certainty that there will be a second wave — the majority of scientists are sure of that. And many also assume that there will be a third wave,” said Lothar Wieler, head of Germany’s national disease control center.
South Korea reported two new cases Wednesday, its lowest daily total since February, and the country’s baseball season began the previous day with no spectators allowed.
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Associated Press journalists around the world contributed to this report.
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Follow AP pandemic coverage at http://apnews.com/VirusOutbreak and https://apnews.com/UnderstandingtheOutbreak
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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.