As the novel coronavirus spread through the Bay Area and across California last month, deaths in Santa Clara County rose significantly compared to the same time period a year before, adding to concerns that the toll of the virus may be more widespread here than initially believed.
New data released to this news organization shows that deaths recorded by the Santa Clara County Medical Examiner-Coroner’s Office rose 20% in March, compared with March of 2019 — an increase that includes 17% rise in the number of people who died at home. Overall, COVID-19 was listed as the cause of death or significant condition for 32 people who died in the county in March, matching the tally reported by the public health office at the time.
Santa Clara County Executive Jeffrey Smith said that the uptick in deaths may be even higher, and include more COVID-19 deaths than previously known.
On Tuesday, the county public health department revealed that the first recorded coronavirus death occurred on February 6 — three weeks earlier than what was previously thought to be the first U.S. death, in Washington state on February 28. The county also disclosed two additional deaths from coronavirus, on February 17 and March 6, which predate the county’s first publicly reported death on March 9. All three individuals died at home, and were tested posthumously for the virus.
“We know the virus has dramatic effects. It’s not the kind of virus that waits around, some people are dead within a few days of diagnosis,” wherever that happens, Smith said. “It’s a much more dangerous virus than we initially recognized.”
The March figures from the medical examiner — which include deaths related to COVID-19 and also from other leading causes such as accidents, heart disease, cancer and diabetes — are just a snapshot of the overall deaths that have occurred in the county amid the pandemic. Experts said the county death tolls deserve more study, and may suggest the coronavirus death toll is understated, either because not enough people have been tested or fear of the virus is scaring sick people away from hospitals.
“April could turn out to be different or February could have been very different. It’s important to raise the question,” said John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at UC Berkeley. “It will be interesting to see if it turns out to be the case.”
As of Tuesday, Santa Clara County had reported 1,948 confirmed coronavirus cases and 88 coronavirus-related fatalities, accounting for about 40% of the total death toll in the Bay Area.
Santa Clara County Supervisor Dave Cortese announced Wednesday that his own public-records request for similar data from showed an increase of 20 to 25 percent of overall deaths in the first quarter of the year — translating to around 300 people — “much of which appear to be from the infectious disease.”
Cortese said he has been disappointed with what he described as “sanitized reports” using carefully chosen terms like “COVID-confirmed deaths” or “deaths directly attributed to COVID” that downplay how limited a picture they provide.
“Everybody knows we are doing one of the best jobs in the country of responding to it, so why bury the lead? It’s important to know that somebody was infected early, especially in the global context,” Cortese said. “But there’s a whole other story: By the way, our deaths are 25% higher than last year. When were you going tell somebody that?”
He added: “We can’t afford to have a breakdown in trust. You don’t have to get every single exact cause and effect reported perfectly. But I have problem with defensiveness about data.”
New York City last week dramatically increased its COVID-19 death toll by adding more than 3,700 victims presumed to have died as a result of the virus but never tested positive. The revised death tally brought the number of people killed in the city to more than 10,000 and increased the national count by 17 percent. New Yorkers are now dying at four times the usual daily amount for this time of year, according to a New York Times report on Tuesday.
Though California has yet to take any similar steps to adjust how coronavirus deaths are counted, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday the state has directed coroners to revisit deaths dating back to December “to ultimately help guide a deeper understanding of when this pandemic really started to impact Californians directly.”
“When this occurred is important forensic information that is going to be profoundly significant in terms of understanding the epidemiology of the disease,” Newsom said.
