Colorado public health officials say modeling data shows a second spike in coronavirus cases is expected to be worse than the first spike in April. 

The state has seen a decrease in daily case counts since peaking in late April, according to data posted on the state website. The state has also seen significant improvement in recent days, with no new deaths reported statewide over the weekend and coronavirus-related hospitalizations continuing to decrease. 

But while coronavirus hospitalizations are declining, the rate of decline is slowing, Colorado School of Public Health Dean Jon Samet told reporters Monday morning. 

The current infection rate for the virus in Colorado is less than one, meaning that for each person with the virus, less than one other person gets infected, leading to a decrease in new cases. However, the infection rate has gone up slightly in the last week, and Samet said when it goes above one again cases will begin to grow.

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Modeling data based on previous coronavirus data collected by the state health department shows that 65% social distancing — the state’s social distancing goal through the safer-at-home period — will be required through most of this year to not overwhelm hospital capacity, Samet said. Going anywhere below that level of social distancing shows a spike in coronavirus cases requiring hospitalization that would exceed hospital bed capacity as early as this summer.

Going below 45% social distancing — which is like a person cutting back on the normal amount of social activities by less than half — is predicted to lead to a surge in coronavirus cases, Samet said.

The modeling data also shows a spike in new coronavirus cases in mid-August when most schools are scheduled to resume in-person learning for the first time since March, Samet said.

Maintaining high levels of social distancing — 65% or above for older adults — will likely be required through November, according to the state health department’s models. Models also show higher levels of social distancing for older adults — closer to 80% — might be required to prevent overwhelming the state’s hospitals. 

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The state model looks at data through May 14, according to the state. As of May 14, it’s believed Coloradans have on average been practicing social distancing to 75%, down from 80% under the stay-at-home order. But social distancing levels are dropping even further and the reproduction rate of the virus is increasing, according to the state. 

State epidemiologist Rachel Herlihy said nine in 10 coronavirus deaths in Colorado have been adults age 60 and older, so protecting that vulnerable population will be key moving forward in managing this virus. 

Testing is also being expanded statewide to anyone who is asymptomatic and believes they were in contact with a person with the coronavirus. Asymptomatic individuals who were exposed to the coronavirus are asked to get tested about seven days after they believe they were exposed. 

Previously, only essential workers with frequent contact with the public and symptomatic people were able to get a coronavirus test. In the last week of May, the state processed more than 33,000 coronavirus tests, according to data provided by the state health department. 

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Gov. Jared Polis previously said the state now has the ability to process up to 8,500-10,000 tests daily. 

Increased testing will also be high priority in the state’s continued approach in managing the virus outbreak, state officials have said.

Right now, the state is detecting about 52% of symptomatic cases, with the goal of being able to detect and trace 80% of cases, Herlihy said Monday. Increased testing will help the state identify and contact trace those cases, leading to more people being asked to individually isolate themselves and lessen the spread of the virus. 

Asymptomatic individuals who believe they were exposed can get a coronavirus test through their health care provider or at one of the state’s free testing sites. To find sites in Larimer County, visit https://covid19.colorado.gov/testing.

Sady Swanson covers crime, courts, public safety and more throughout Northern Colorado. You can send your story ideas to her at [email protected] or on Twitter at @sadyswan. Support our work and local journalism with a digital subscription at Coloradoan.com/subscribe.

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